Friday, May 31, 2002
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There has been a lot of talk about wireless LANs (802.11) becoming the defacto wireless broadband solution instead of the 3G cellular networks now being built. While the general concept that LANs are going to overtake WANs I find to be quite unlikely (even ridiculous), Vocera would put a feather in the cap of any of the "nationwide 802.11" proponents. By adding voice capabilities to the wireless LAN, it offers a response to one of the major benefits of cellular 3G communications -- namely the integration of both voice and data. Currently they are marketing a voice activated PDA-sized device for quick intra-office communications, but one could imagine they have their eye on expanding that vision.
Tuesday, May 28, 2002
The keynote speaker at TR100 and author of the Inventors Dilemna, Clayton Christensen has that age old desire to make a theory out of something that seems impossible to make sense of. Namely, how disruptive technology comes to pass.
An interesting talk, and intriguing article in this months TR. If nothing else, he reminds us that disruptive does not necessarily mean a higher advancement of technology - and that it can often (Christensen would say always) be a technology that is indeed worse than the current best products. The key is that they have lower price points, and therefore broad enough appeal to change peoples lives.
The Technology Review 100 symposium this year was well worth the day. Although there were only a few amazingly innovative core ideas pushing the edge, the 100 top young innovators were a good selection of the best of breed in technology today. Despite my past positive remarks about the recognition that Fanning should get
In a followup to my previous notes on Napster, while I believe Mr. Fanning should be far more recognized for the contribution that Napster will make to overall computing - I don't believe he should have been named to the TR100. I have a ton of respect for what you've done so far Shawn, but so far this has only proven a one-hit (highly litigous) wonder - not proof that he will remain innovating in this industry. Good luck though.
Friday, May 17, 2002
Well, they didn't actually die..but everything below still applies. What they did do was yet again show amazing guts and push their company to the brink of elimination in order to finally get rid of the BOD that had been bogging them down. Now they'll enter Chapter 11 to reform and we'll see what they're really made of.
It was such a simple program, and anyone could have created it starting the day after the Internet was born. It is not unfortunate that Napster as a company has failed so far, after all it wasn't a particularly incredible piece of programming or business acumen. But, like Smalltalk or NCSA Mosaic, it sometimes takes a simple stroke of luck/genius/inventiveness to create a paradigm shift. And those who are involved in those shifts deserve recognition.
It is unfortunate that while Alan Kay is remembered for his seminal contributions to computing, it is doubtful that Shawn Fanning will be thought of the same way. Programming languages would never be the same after Smalltalk. NCSA Mosaic created the world wide web phenomenon. Ten years from now it will be clear that Napster changed distribution on the Internet forever.
Although you may hate the trackpad on your laptop, DSI is betting that's just a software problem. Instead of having users pres a single finger down and move it around to emulate a mouse, why not make the trackpad 3 times as large and let you use your whole hand? Here's a video to see what I mean.
Now that the product has finally hit market we'll get a chance to find out first hand. It's interesting to me that the success or failure of their product would seem to be completely tied to their software. If I need to pretend I'm a mouse and/or learn tons of little macros (ie move your index finger to the left and tap twice to rotate a square) then it's dead. However if a user can use it intuitively, if the interpretations are complex enough to figure out with relative reliability what think it should be doing, it could be a very solid entry into the market at a nice price point.
The world of input devices is woefully in need of more experimentation grounded in real usability. Merely as a pointing device the mouse is in dire need of being topped. Despite testing everything from data gloves to IR-based head mounted tracking I have yet to really see something that works better than my trusted corded (or cordless) friend, so pardon I'll remain a little skeptical till I can test one.
Technology Review concurs that the era of ubiqitious computing will be the migration of the industry, and speaks briefly on the nuts and bolts changes that are going to need to take place. Not surprisingly they tie in this year's TR100, which I'll be attending later this month.
Although a little far afield from what we would usually focus on, Stephen Wolfram's new book A New Kind of Science is so clearly a case of brinking I had to mention it. From the creator of Mathematica, Wolfram is beginning his attempt to revolutionize science through the application of cellular automata. If he didn't come with some serious respect this could easily be laughed off, but he might just have what it takes. Here are also articles from Forbes, the New Scientist and the New York Times on the book and Wolfram. He's also featured in this month's Wired.
Roughly two years ago I started being bullish on the prospects for Samsung. That was around the time they fundamentally changed strategies, from a bulk-supplier of average electronics, to incredibly well thought and and well designed products. And, without the price markups we see with Sony.
The first significant entry with this new strategy was cellphones, and after revamping their design team and R&D department they clearly got results. Their entry into the CDMA market on Sprint PCS, the SCH-3500, instantly became a best-seller. It was clean, well-designed, and the best flip-phone on that market at the time. Since then they have continued to push mobile phones with the first MP3 powered phone, at least a year before the "convergence" craze, and recently with America's first GPS-enabled phone (SCH-N300).
Other clear successes? Their push into monitors saw a beautiful converged TV/LCD both in price-point, and in design. The Syncmaster 150MP looked gorgeous and set a new price point bar. Although still a little early to call a full victory, they've got an up and coming R&D department worth watching.
Friday, May 10, 2002
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Every since Research in Motion reached moderate success with their Blackberry device everyone in the industry seems to accepted that email still remains the killer app. It has been YEARS and no one has successfully deployed an Exchange-based system that can match RIM, even though it's clearly not rocket science. Handspring is getting close, but the lack of GPRS for the Treo right now is killing their first impressions. The Palm i705 doesn't integrate that well, the PocketPC is woefully behind, and the latest cell phones - despite adding tons of acronyms GPRS, POP and SMTP, as well as "Wap Push" have only muddied the waters.
Finally, a company other than RIM understands email synchronization and integration are the key - and seems to deliver. You have to start with the basis of the Internet, which has always been email. Adding the fact that it is a cradeless technology is a perfect step for Good, especially since over 50% of Palm users still don't sync regularly.
Last sign that they may be a success? They led with the software first, understanding that the platform (ie - what people could DO with the product) was what would be its success or failure. That's a key that Danger has gotten so wrong.
It was a excellent indicator that although Good's first product (the Sounds Good, which I owned and loved) ultimately failed - it was elegant, small, and easily the best product in its category.
Looking at the failure of the Apple Newton and success of the Palm is an easy lesson on design and usability making the difference. What was the Blackberry if not a extremely well design interface for email that used ridiculously old technology (it's based on a 80286 processor).
Yet a multi-function watch, despite being around since the early 80s, remains one of the most convoluted interfaces around. Tissot's new T-Touch touch screen watch is a breakthrough in watch design. What is it? Well it's a touch screen watch. If you haven't already peaked, your image what a "touch-screen" watch looks like is probably some large clunky object like a Seiko calculator/game watch circa 1985. Or perhaps even has horribly designed as the IBM linux bluetooth watch.
Tissot's new watch is remarkable because of its simplicity, despite having an integrated barometer, altimeter, compass and thermometer, not to forget the full chronograph functions as well. All in a simple, elegant interface that allows those functions to actually be usable. Now that Tissot devised an elegant way to get functionality in a design that small, lets hope they tackle managing the information (PIM) and communication (SMS, IM, etc) in our lives.
Thursday, May 09, 2002
It's old news now, but its worth mentioning in a world in which technology often hides emotions (reducing us to smiley faces in email messages to show we are happy) that Toyota is thinking of ways to emit emotion in an automobile. The Toyota PODincorporates a lot of new design ideas in rethinking the vehicle. Unfortunately design-wise it also is clearly the big-auto cousin of the Sony's Aibo, an effect that doesn't work all that well. But technology that helps us express ourselves in new ways is always welcome.
It's also unfortunate that the Linux-based Jornada X25 [Brighthand] never saw the light of day. The battle between Pocket PC and Palm is fairly mundane, but it would have been excellent to see some real consumer competition in the $200 range. The arena that Palm has flourished in and most have ignored.
A term I started using years ago with a close set of business partners and friends, it's a reference to pushing yourself, your career, your company, your industry, as far as it can go.
Brinking in our culture has come into its own in America in the last century, it has become a way of life for some. The recent .com craze was essentially created by those "lazy Gen-Xers" actually migrating into the forkforce. The "brinkers" in that particular group were predisposed to being anti-old corporate america, and anti-traditionalism. The same stereotype that started with "Slacker" ended with the .Com boom.
The summer of '69 had to come to an end, and many of the things they had fought for seemed to immediately dwindle away in the corruption and horrible disco sounds of the 70s. So too, the summer of '99 had to come to an end and we corporate culture and old slow moving businesses prevailing. The long term effects of what was established most accept will be extremely dramatic.
So what's next? What do those who had been committed to the idealism and optimism of the .com boom, if not the overinflated egos and ridiculous business plans, do now? Well I personally continue to push on 'brinking' - and decided to capture some of the ongoing machinations on the cutting edge of wireless, consumer electronics, the internet, research and development, and other sections of the technology framework that push on.