Monday, November 25, 2002
It's interesting that from a marketing angle they are being very careful to say that they are making the original devices better at "what they were meant to do" and associated tasks. It is a great way to try and explain that from a design principle standpoint this is not simply a smaller version of Pocket PC. These are wireless devices dedicated to usage profiles (waking up in the morning=alarm clock that tells you the weather and traffic commute). None of the initial prototypes looks like they have gone the further step of simplicity and made a device that is task specific (traffic display). I imagine that's another year or two once they've built market share in this iniative. Kudos for simplicity.
Ballmer addressed SPOT in an interview with News.com, hinting that the devices (running a custom National Semicondutor Chip) might use Microsoft's .Net Compact Framework. They also will likely use yet another new local wireless standard. We'll know more in early January at CES.
One final note, did "Smart" really need to make a comeback as a way to designate technology adoption in a device? I was sure "Smart Appliances" would have killed that.
Thursday, November 14, 2002
But innovation can't wait, and it's refreshing to see start-ups providing the impetus for new wireless products and services that Qualcomm - engaged in fighting a pointless trade war - doesn't seem to think are a priority. Qualcomm isn't lacking in brainpower or expertise, but appears to be as conducive to innovation as IBM was when faced with the PC industry in the mid-1980s.
Seems like a hopelessly cheezy idea at first glance, destined for the scrap-heap of gimicks. The idea is simple on its surface, but doesn't seem to pan out. Let me break it down -- Take the most profitable part of the cellphone business -- namely faceplates (the perfect model of selling a $.25 piece of plastic for $20 based on brand/celebrity identity) and make a cell phone that allows you to create more value (therefore charging more) for the faceplate. Makes sense to grow the part of the business that is doing the most profitable, right?
Well, the only problem making the product "smart" you erode the margins. Add memory, a Linux subsystem, and downloadable content to your $.25 faceplate you just increased the cost $15. Bye bye profit margins, looks like a bad idea.
Business, however, is often about perspective. In the battle to rule the cellphone market the biggest problem handset makers have is getting people to upgrade their handsets every year. People are perfectly happy with the handset, they don't upgrade. What if Wildseed told you the answer was, "Don't sell them the handset, just sell them a new faceplate." Viewed as a way to sell them a new handset without all the expense of the reselling them the same radio and screen, it starts to make some sense. Sell them the part they want replaced, content and design, and nothing else. Your profit margin on a "new" mobile phone sale (now just the faceplate) increased several-fold. I doubt that's their exact pitch, but whatever it was seemed to work on Kyocera.
Mmm, but what about wireless carriers like Sprint PCS and Verizon? They can't be happy with the prospect of more sales done outside the pervue of a cellphone plan, right? Well, the biggest problem for carriers is to try and find content that people will actually want on their cellphones. They can get the coolest content to try and justify 3G but the WAP interfaces are so terrible there is no way I'm going to drive down 5 levels of menus to see if maybe my favorite website is covered. So, think of the faceplate as an tangible interface to information. That's very much akin to what we've been up to over at Ambient, and a great way to get people to understand and interact with the data.
Handset manufacturer increased sales per customer, carrier has information to sell that people can see, everybody's happy. Of course, it does make it more difficult to sell porn if you've got to carry around a playboy cellphone. And you know what they all say about the importance of porn.
Tuesday, November 12, 2002
A couple years ago I went through an experimental few months where I worked with the latest tablet PC (Fujitsu, which has been been making tablets for vertical markets for many years), the latest laptop (only available in Japan of course, tricked out with Bluetooth and such), and the latest desktop. It seemed fairly clear that in a day-to-day environment the most comfortable to work with was the tablet PC. Grabbing it for a meeting, sitting at lunch and not having to use a tabletop, and just being able to curl up around it all seemed to lead to a much closer relationship between mind and device. The punchline is the same as always though, without handwriting recognition far enough along it just didn't make sense since replying to emails is one of the key activities on a PC.
Which is why for my mind the Tmobile Sidekick is what is in my pocket. It may be a so-so phone (I still use my T39 as my primary phone) -- but as a dedicated email, instant messaging, sms, and browsing this is beats anything in the market or on the near horizon.